USDA has again slashed projected U.S. corn yield and production as dryness and heat in the Midwest continues, and in some places, worsens. USDA also lowered estimated U.S. soybean yield and production and raised cotton production and ending stocks from last month in its Aug. 10 Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
Corn production is forecast at 10.8 billion bushels, down 2.2 billion bushels from last monthand the lowest production since 2006.
Based on conditions as of Aug. 1, yields are expected to average 123.4 bushels per acre, down 22.6 bushels from last month. If realized, this will be the lowest average yield since 1995. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 87.4 million acres, down 2 percent from the June forecast but up 4 percent from 2011.
Corn ending stocks for 2011-12 are projected 118 million bushels higher with lower expected exports, reduced corn use for ethanol and a small increase in imports. Total U.S. corn supplies for 2012-13 are projected down 2 billion bushels and at a nine-year low.
The biggest reduction again this month is for feed and residual use, projected down 725 million bushels. USDA projects a 400-million-bushel reduction in corn used to produce ethanol. Ending stocks for 2012-13 are projected at 650 million bushels, 533 million lower and the smallest carryout since 1995-96.
The U.S. sorghum yield is forecast 16.3 bushels lower at 48.6 bushels as drought stressed sorghum from the Central Plains to the Corn Belt. Sorghum harvested area is also lowered slightly.
Soybean production is forecast at 2.69 billion bushels, down 12 percent from last year. Yields are expected to average 36.1 bushels per acre, down 5.4 bushels from last year and 4.4 bushels from last month. If realized, the average yield will be the lowest since 2003. Area for harvest is forecast at 74.6 million acres, down 1 percent from June but up 1 percent from 2011.
All cotton production is forecast at 17.7 million bales, up 13 percent from last year. Yield is expected to average 784 pounds per acre, down 6 pounds from last year. Upland cotton production is forecast at 17 million bales, up 15 percent from 2011. Pima production, forecast at 663,000 bales, is down 22 percent from last year.
USDA’s projects U.S. rice production for 2012-13 at 190 million hundredweight, down 1 million from last month’s projection, but up nearly 3 percent from the previous year. Average yield is forecast at 7,196 pounds per acre, down 39 pounds per acre from last month’s projection, but up nearly 2 percent from last year. Long-grain production is forecast at 132.1 million hundredweight, down 1 percent from last month, while combined medium- and short-grain production is forecast at 57.9 million, up less than 1 percent from a month ago.