The initial California 2012-2013 Navel orange forecast is 93 million cartons, up 6 percent from the previous year. Of the total forecast, 90.0 million cartons are estimated to be in the Central Valley. This forecast is based on the results of a objective measurement survey conducted from July 15 to Sept. 3 by the California NASS office.
The survey indicated a fruit set per tree of 344; above the five-year average of 324. The average Sept. 1 diameter was 2.195 inches; below the five-year average of 2.254.
The variety forecast includes conventional, organic, and specialty Navel oranges, including Cara Cara and Blood orange varieties.
The survey was conducted from July 15 to Sept. 3.
Of the 539 utilized groves, 10 were in Madera County, 92 in Fresno County, 306 in Tulare County, and 131 in Kern County.
Estimated fruit set per tree, fruit diameter, trees per acre, bearing acreage, and oranges per box were used in the statistical models to estimate the production.