No changes are made on the supply side of the U.S. 2010/11 rice supply and use balance sheet, according to USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.
On the use side, the export forecast decreased 1 million cwt from a month ago to 116 million. The long-grain rice export projection decreased 1 million cwt to 78 million, and combined medium- and short-grain export forecast is unchanged at a record 38 million. Rough rice exports and combined milled- and brown-rice exports each decreased 500,000 cwt from last month to 43 million and 73 million, respectively.
The reduction in the export projection is due primarily to the slower-than-expected pace of sales and shipments to date to Central America, Venezuela, and Sub-Saharan Africa. The decrease in the export forecast resulted in an increase in ending stocks of 1 million to 52.8 million, the largest stocks since 1985/86.
The 2010/11 long-grain, season-average price is projected at $10.75 to $11.25 per cwt as the range is narrowed 25 cents per cwt on each end with the midpoint unchanged at $11.00 per cwt.
The combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at $16.75 to $17.25 per cwt, down 25 cents per cwt on the low end of the range and a decrease of 75 cents per cwt on the high end with the midpoint decreased 50 cents per cwt to $17.00 per cwt. The all rice season average price is forecast at $12.15 to $12.65 per cwt, up 15 cents per cwt on the low end of the range, but down 35 cents per cwt on the high end with the midpoint decreased 10 cents per cwt to $12.40 per cwt. The price projections are based on National Agricultural Statistics Service reported prices through mid-January and expected prices the remainder of the marketing year.
Global 2010/11 projections of rice production, consumption, and ending stocks decreased from a month ago, and trade increased. The decrease in the global production forecast is due mostly to reductions in Indonesia, the Philippines, Japan, and Sri Lanka partially offset by increases for Cambodia and Uruguay. Indonesia's rice crop is forecast at 37.5 million tons, down 500,000 tons from last month due to an expected decrease in average field and milling yields.
According to the U.S. Agricultural Counselor in Jakarta, the lower field and milling yields were caused by excessive rains during the growing season. Severe flooding in Sri Lanka has damaged the 2010/11 rice crop. The reduction in the Philippine and Japanese rice crops are due to a decrease in average field yields based on official government estimates.
Global consumption decreased primarily due to reductions for Cambodia, the Philippines, and Sri Lanka. World exports increased by 500,000 tons primarily due to increases for Australia, Brazil, Cambodia, and Uruguay, partially offset by a reduction for the United States. Higher import forecasts for Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Vietnam are partially offset by a reduction for the Philippines. Global ending stocks decreased by 500,000 tons to 93.9 million based primarily on reductions for Japan, Pakistan, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, and Thailand.