There were no supply-side revisions this month to the 2010/11 U.S. rice balance sheet, according to the most recent Rice Outlook report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service. Total U.S. rice supplies in 2010/11 remain projected at a record 297.8 million cwt, almost 11 percent larger than a year earlier. Carryin, production, and imports are all projected to be larger in 2010/11 than last year, with the 2010/11 U.S. rice crop forecast at a record 241.6 million cwt. By class, long-grain accounts for all of the year-to-year increase in total U.S. rice supplies.
Total use of U.S. rice in 2010/11 remains projected at a record 248 million cwt, almost seven percent above a year earlier. Total domestic and residual use of all-rice remains projected at a record 129 million cwt for 2010/11, more than 5 percent above a year earlier. Although total exports remain projected at 119 million cwt, there was a 1 million cwt shift to medium/short-grain from long-grain. At 36 million cwt, the 2010/11 medium/short-grain exports are the highest on record.
U.S. ending stocks in 2010/11 remain projected at 49.8 million cwt, up 36 percent from a year earlier and the largest ending stocks since 1986/87. The 2010/11 season average farm price (SAFP) for U.S. long-grain rice remains projected at $10.50-$11.50 per cwt. The combined medium/short-grain 2010/11 U.S. SAFP decreased 50 cents on both ends to $16.80-$17.80 per cwt.
Global rice production in 2010/11 is forecast at a record 452.4 million tons (milled basis), up about 1 million tons from last month's forecast and almost 3 percent larger than a year earlier. Production forecasts increased this month for China, Guyana, and Vietnam, but decreased for Egypt, India, North Korea, and Pakistan. Global ending stocks for 2010/11 are forecast at 94.8 million tons, down slightly from 2009/10.
Global rice trade for 2011 remains forecast at 30.3 million tons, unchanged from last month, but more than 1 percent higher than a year earlier. The 2010 global trade forecast increased almost 400,000 tons to 29.9 million tons. This increase was largely due to an upward revision in Vietnam's exports. Smaller upward revisions in 2010 exports were also made for Burma, Guyana, Mexico, and South Korea.
Trading prices for Thailand's high- and medium-quality grades of non-specialty rice have increased from two to nine percent since early November, mostly due to temporarily tight supplies of high-quality rice and a weaker dollar. Tight supplies in Vietnam prior to the country's main-season harvest early next year have caused prices to increase about $15 per ton since early November. Price quotes for U.S. long-grain milled rice continued to increase over the past month, partly due to the low milling yields. Prices for U.S. medium-grain milled rice have also increased since early November.