U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected 10 million bushels higher this month reflecting lower domestic use. Projected food use is lowered 10 million bushels on the latest mill-grind data from the U.S. Census Bureau, which indicate flour extraction rates that are higher than the long-term average for a third straight year.
With historically high wheat prices, millers continue to get more flour out of each bushel of wheat. Total exports are unchanged, but small shifts among classes of wheat result in higher projected exports of hard red spring and white wheat and lower projected exports of hard red winter wheat and durum. The projected marketing-year average price received by producers is narrowed 5 cents on each end of the range to $5.30 to $5.70 per bushel.
World 2010/11 wheat supplies got an almost 5-million-ton boost this month from a combination of a 3.6-million-ton increase in production, with major increases in Australia, Pakistan, and Canada, and from a 1.3-million-ton upward revision in beginning stocks. Increased 2010/11 wheat supplies more than compensate for a 0.7-million-ton increase in consumption. World wheat ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected higher this month by 4.2 million tons to 176.7 million tons. World wheat trade in 2010/11 for the July-June marketing year is projected down 1.65 million tons to 125.1 million tons.
Domestic situation and outlook
2010/11 Supplies: Total projected supplies for 2010/11, at 3,294 million bushels, are unchanged from November. Supplies for 2010 are 301 million bushels above 2009/10. Sharply higher beginning stocks more than offset slightly lower production and projected imports year to year.
Projected supplies of all wheat classes except soft red winter (SRW) wheat are up year to year for 2010/11. SRW supplies are down, mostly because of a large yearto-year production drop with both lower area and yields. The hard wheats, hard red winter (HRW) and hard red spring (HRS), have the largest year-to-year increases in 2010/11 supplies with their larger carryin stocks and higher production.
Projected 2010/11 carryin stocks of all classes are up year to year, with HRW’s 131-million-bushel increase leading the other classes. Projected all-wheat imports are unchanged from November. Projected imports for 2010/11 are down 9 million bushels year to year, as lower HRS and SRW imports more than offset higher durum imports.
All-wheat 2010 production is estimated at 2,208 million bushels, unchanged from November, but down 10 million bushels from 2009. All-wheat harvested area is estimated at 47.6 million acres, unchanged from November and down 2.3 million acres from last year. The U.S. all-wheat estimated yield is 46.4 bushels per acre, unchanged from November, but up 1.9 bushels from 2009. The 2010 yield is up 1.5 bushels per acre from the previous record high of 44.9 bushels in 2008.
2010/11 Use: Domestic use of wheat for 2010/11 is projected at 1,186 million bushels, down 10
million bushels from November because of reduced food use, but 49 million bushels higher than last year. Food use for 2010/11 is projected at 930 million bushels, down 10 million bushels from November, but up 13 million bushels from 2009/10. The higher year-to-year food use reflects (1) continued high extraction rates with high wheat prices, (2) population growth, and (3) constant per capita flour consumption year to year. Feed and residual use is projected at 180 million bushels, unchanged from November. Projected feed and residual use for 2010/11 is 30 million bushels above feed and residual use for 2009/10.
Projected exports for 2010/11 are 1,250 million bushels, unchanged from November, but up 369 million bushels from 2009/10, because of lower production in several major exporting countries and tighter world supplies of high quality milling wheat. Projected 2010/11 exports are only 13 million bushels less than in 2007/08 when exports hit a 15-year high with the global wheat shortage that led to record wheat prices.