A continuing dramatic migration of textile manufacturing from developed nations to developing nations is causing changes to the lineup of major world cotton buyers, says Memphis, Tenn., cotton merchant William B. Dunavant.
"The major traditional consumers like Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong are losing their textile industries," he said at the 2001 Beltwide Cotton Conferences at Anaheim, Calif. "We're fighting the same scenario in the U.S. as our textile business moves to Mexico and Canada."
While this has led a number of analysts to predict that in five years U.S. cotton consumption will drop to 8 million bales, Dunavant sees a less grim scenario. "I think it will continue to drop, but not that dramatically. I think the Caribbean Basin Initiative will, in time, be a factor in stopping the demise of the U.S. textile industry."
In the meantime, he said, the Russian textile industry "is becoming revitalized" and will import about 1.6 million bales this season, most from countries in the region. Turkey will import about the same amount, most from the U.S., while India will import about 1.5 million bales, the bulk of it from West Africa. The bright spot is Mexico, expected to import 2.1 million bales, with the U.S. the major supplier.
Brazil and Italy will import another 2 million-plus bales, almost none from the U.S. Bangladesh is a growth market, going from only 450,000 bales five years ago to 750,000 this year, and Dunavant expects in time the U.S. will become their major supplier.
"Indonesia, a traditional importer, will buy 2.075 million bales," he said, "but Australia will be their major supplier because of quality and proximity."
Japan's imports will drop to 1.15 million bales from 2 million just a few years ago; Korea's will drop by a nearly similar amount, and there will be declines in imports by Hong Kong and Taiwan.
As has been the case for more than a decade, China will be "the major player" in the world market, Dunavant said.
While China's National Statistics Bureau is projecting a crop this season of 19.980 million bales, "we believe that is incorrect" and that it will be nearer 18.5 million.
Keep prices low "I speculate that since the bureau is a big political structure in China, their number has political ramifications, and it seems they're trying to keep domestic cotton prices low in order to benefit their textile industry."
With China's entry into the World Trade Organization, Dunavant said, "they will be a greater importer of cotton in the 2001-2002 crop year."
China has "really been focused on reducing their vast carryover," he noted, "and this season it is becoming closer to a reality. In the future, I believe they will be a bigger player in importing cotton and exporting textiles."