In its November crop report, USDA projected a 2011-2012 U.S. crop of 16.30 million bales, down 310,000 bales from the October report. Upland production was estimated at 15.56 million bales and extra-long staple (ELS) production at 737,000 bales. Harvested area was estimated at 9.85 million acres, implying a non-harvested area of 4.87 million acres based on USDA’s revised June acreage report. The resulting abandonment rate is roughly 33.1 percent. The national average yield per harvested acre was estimated to be 794 pounds, 28 pounds lower than the five-year average.
On a regional basis, the Southeast crop is estimated at 5.28 million bales, based on harvested acres of 3.30 million acres and a regional average yield of 768 pounds, 20 pounds lower than the five-year average for the region. In terms of yield per harvested acre, Georgia leads all states in the region with an estimated yield of 837 pounds per harvested acre, four pounds greater than its five-year average yield. The largest yield gain is expected for Alabama. Yield in Alabama is estimated at 731 pounds per harvested acre, 101 pounds higher than their five-year average. The largest yield decline is expected for North Carolina with yield estimated at 660 pounds per harvested acre, 147 pounds below its five-year average.
In the Mid-South, expected production is 4.80 million bales. Harvested area is estimated to be 2.41 million acres with an expected yield of 958 pounds per harvested acre. Only Arkansas is expected to see a yield decline with an estimated 996 pounds per harvested acre, 18 pounds lower than its five-year average. Missouri is expected to lead the region in yield with an estimated 1,131 pounds per harvested acre, 132 pounds greater than its five-year average.
The Southwest upland crop is estimated at 4.04 million bales. Expected harvested area for the region is 3.37 million acres and the regional average yield is 576 pounds, 135 pounds lower than its five-year average of 711 pounds per harvested acre. All states in the region are down in terms of yield with the greatest decline expected to be seen in Oklahoma, down 236 pounds to 504 pounds per harvested acre. The Texas upland crop is estimated at 3.85 million bales. Expected harvested area in Texas is 3.20 million acres and the average yield is 578 pounds, down 133 pounds from its five-year average.
Upland production in the West is an estimated 1.45 million bales with an estimated harvested area of 492,000 acres and a regional average yield of 1,410 pounds, 17 pounds lower than the region’s five-year average. The greatest gains in yield are expected for Arizona, up 41 pounds to an estimated 1,510 pounds per harvested acre.
The ELS crop is an estimated 737,000 bales. Harvested area is pegged at 288,000 acres with an average yield of 1,231 pounds per harvested acre.