In its July report, USDA projects U.S. 2012-13 production to be 17.00 million bales. Mill use is projected at 3.40 million bales, 100,000 bales less than last month, while exports are projected to increase 300,000 to 12.10 million bales. The estimated total offtake stands at 15.50 million bales. With beginning stocks of 3.30 million bales, this would result in U.S. ending stocks of 4.80 million bales on July 31, 2013, and a stocks-to-use ratio of 31.0 percent.
For the 2011-12 marketing year, USDA gauges U.S. cotton production at 15.57 million bales, unchanged from the previous month. Mill use is projected to fall 100,000 to 3.30 million bales, while exports remained unchanged at 11.60 million bales. The estimated total offtake now stands at 14.90 million bales, generating ending stocks of 3.30 million bales and a stocks-to-use ratio of 22.1 percent.
In July’s report, USDA projects world production for the 2012-13 marketing year at 113.81 million bales. The 1.48 million bale decline is due to lower production estimates for India (-1.00 million bales), Pakistan (-300,000) and other cotton producing countries. Mill use is projected to be 108.98 million bales, 30,000 bales lower. With beginning stocks at 66.68 million bales, this would result in world ending stocks of 72.39 million bales on July 31, 2013, and a stocks-to-use ratio of 66.4 percent.
For the 2011-12 marketing year, world production was estimated at 122.71 million bales, 360,000 bales less than the June report total. World mill use increased 470,000 bales to 106.59 million bales. Consequently, world ending stocks are estimated to be 66.68 million bales with a stocks-to-use ratio of 62.6 percent.