USDA sees decreased production

For the 2008-2009 crop year, USDA's July report projects a US crop of 14.00 million bales, down 500,000 bales from the June report. Mill use increased 100,000 bales to 4.40 million bales while exports were lowered 500,000 bales to 14.50 million bales. The estimated total offtake stands at 18.90 million bales, resulting in ending stocks of 5.30 million bales. The projected ending stocks-to-use ratio is 28.0%.

USDA left US 2007-2008 cotton production at 19.21 million bales, unchanged from last month's estimate. Both exports and mill use also were unchanged from last month at 13.90 million bales and 4.60 million bales, respectively. That estimated total offtake stands at 18.50 million bales generating ending stocks of 10.20 million bales. The estimated ending stocks-to-use ratio is 55.1%.

USDA's report put world production for 2008-2009 at 114.94 million bales, down 1.49 million bales from last month's estimate. Mill use is estimated at 125.91 million bales, down 1.25 million bales from last month. World ending stocks are estimated to be 53.24 million bales for a stocks-to-use ratio of 42.3%.

For the 2007-2008 marketing year, production was lowered 130,000 bales to 119.91 million bales. World mill use was lowered 150,000 bales to 124.25 million bales. Consequently, that world ending stocks level is estimated to be 61.26 million bales for a stocks-to-use ratio of 49.3%.

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